There have been many arguments as to whether or not the eleven-year sunspot cycle affects our weather and climate. It also influences Earth’s climate: We know subtle changes in Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the past ice ages. To help overcome these difficulties, TOSCA produced a handbook that summarizes our present understanding of these different processes by which solar variability may affect climate [Lilensten et al., 2016]. In response to this more stable vertical profile for tropical tropospheric processes, tropical convection preferentially shifts off the equator, favoring monsoonal effects during Northern Hemisphere summer and on the annual average. It has been suggested that changes in solar output might affect our climate—both directly, by changing the rate of solar heating of the Earth and atmosphere, and indirectly, by changing cloud forming processes. With the help of the Sun's total and open magnetic flux and of historical records of sunspot numbers and other proxies of solar activity, it is possible to reconstruct not just the total irradiance of the Sun and its variation over the last couple of centuries, but also changes in the solar spectrum (in particular the irradiance in the UV) and in the cosmic-ray flux during this period. For example, scientists have been making direct measurements (from space) of the total solar radiative input into Earth’s atmosphere only since 1978, although there had been earlier attempts to measure it from the ground. T. Dudok de Wit (email: [email protected]), Laboratoire de Physique et Chimie de l’Environnement et de l’Espace, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, University of Orléans, France; B. Funke, Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Glorieta de la Astronomia, Granada, Spain; M. Haberreiter, Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center, Davos Dorf, Switzerland; and K. Matthes, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research & Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Germany, Research Spotlight Researchers have shown that UV radiation affects climate through direct heating and the production and destruction of ozone in the stratosphere, which then leads to regional effects at Earth’s surface through a complex chain of mechanisms. Precipitation decreases occur greater than 50% of the time south of the equator in both figures, but decreases in mid-latitudes result primarily from the UV changes (top figure). All rights reserved. Solar irradiance is also useful to help determine solar insolation, or how much energy your solar system may produce on average in a given time period - and thus, how much you can expect to save on energy costs. All this evokes the important question of how sunspots affect the Earth's climate. But there is little agreement on just how that change arises. For example, NASA’s Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) mission, which started operating in 2003, reported an unusually large solar cycle variability in the UV. However, instruments degrade in the harsh environment of space, leaving researchers with large uncertainties in the data. Solar variability affects Earth’s climate in many intricate and nonlinear ways. Our experiments show that the solar cycle influences tropospheric rainfall patterns in a manner consistent with some observations, with increased solar activity favoring precipitation north of the equator (for example, the South Asian monsoon) and decreased precipitation both near the equator and at northern mid-latitudes. © 2021 American Geophysical Union. 12 January 2021, Feature Compared to other stars, our Sun is a remarkably steady source of light and heat, but its output does vary. Such analyses require records that extend over a long period of time, but the paucity of observations in existing records poses a serious challenge. doi:10.1029/2008JD010114. Total solar irradiance over the past three solar cycles, since 1975, varying between 1365 and 1367 W/m2. 29 October 2020, News Similarly, increased carbon dioxide in the stratosphere has led to gradual cooling conditions, which affects the UV influence on the stratospheric circulation. This merged data set, which has recently been made public, covers the period from 1978 to the present [Haberreiter et al., 2017]; it includes data for the UV, visible, and near-infrared bands. Via the interaction of these wind changes and planetary waves propagating up from the troposphere, the circulation in the stratosphere weakens, a response characterized by greater relative upwelling in the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, and more downwelling in the northern extratropics. To w… 21 December 2020, Editors' Vox Res., 122, 5,910–5,930, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023492. The recent and unusually long period of low solar activity that took place in 2008–2009, however, challenges our ability to reconstruct solar activity from proxies. Figure 2, at right. However, the GCR hypothesis suffers from the same fundamental problem as total solar irradiance: it is moving in the wrong direction. This data set, which runs from 1850 to 2015, includes solar radiative forcing using TSI and SSI reconstructions. Solar irradiance is the power per unit area received from the Sun in the form of electromagnetic radiation as measured in the wavelength range of the measuring instrument. It is the first to incorporate contributions from energetic particles such as magnetospheric electrons, solar protons, and galactic cosmic rays. This variation remains hotly debated since most wavelengths are monitored only by SORCE, with no alternative observations. Unlike TSI, which integrates the contribution from all spectral bands (UV, visible, infrared) into one single quantity, SSI reveals variations at specific wavelengths, each of which affects Earth’s environment in a different way. (2017), A new observational solar irradiance composite, J. Geophys. The highest priority, however, is to continue simultaneous total and spectral irradiance observations by different instruments. Total solar irradiance changes, though of small magnitude, do appear to affect sea surface temperatures (SSTs), most obviously at latitudes where cloud cover is small and irradiance is abundant, such as the Northern Hemisphere subtropics during summer. SSTs however have been influenced by other forcings, such as greenhouse gases, over the last few decades, and these transient changes will obviously affect the solar cycle influence. The bottom-up mechanism for total solar irradiance (TSI). On the few occasions when several instruments measured the SSI simultaneously, their observations often disagreed, which highlights the importance of calibrating the instruments and having several of them that operate simultaneously. The discovery of the effects of radiation in the ultraviolet (UV) wavelength band shattered this simple picture. To answer this question, we need to know how total solar irradiance received by the Earth is affected by sunspot activity. This has led some to suggest that changes in solar activity could influence the Earth’s climate by changing cloud formation. Haberreiter, M., et al. The increased SSTs then help intensify circulations spiraling away from the subtropics, again favoring reduced rainfall near the equator and to the south, as well as northern mid-latitudes. 5 November 2020, News Large solar installations affect global and regional climate by taking solar radiation and distributing it in a different manner than natural processes. Climate models show that total solar irradiance variations can account for a considerable part of the temperature variation of the Earth’s atmosphere in the pre-industrial era. One of the lessons we learned from this exercise is the importance of separating the methodological problem (What is the best way of constructing the composite?) How—indeed whether—the Sun's variable energy outputs influence Earth's climate has engaged scientific curiosity for more than a century. Difficulties like these have been a major impediment to a more systematic scientific exploitation of SSI observations, and they remain the prime reason for the large uncertainties on the long-term evolution of solar radiative forcing. SOLID’s observational composite is a major first step toward improved versions, and we are now awaiting community feedback to determine if corrections should be applied and what they should be. Locally it can account for 15-20% of rainfall totals. Scientists simulate historical and future climates by setting up a suite of initial conditions and seeing how these conditions change when various factors, called forcings, are applied. Commun., 5, 5197, https://doi.org/ 10.1038/ncomms6197. Figure 1. The absorption of solar radiation determines the Earth’s mean temperature and radiation budget, while the latitudinal distribution of the absorbed radiation is the primary driver for atmospheric circulations. For example, how does Earth’s surface temperature change if it receives more or less heat from the Sun? As variation of solar radiation is the single most important factor affecting climate, it is considered here first. Most effects are ultimately driven and modulated by the solar magnetic field and its conspicuous solar cycle, which repeats approximately every 11 years. The total solar irradiance, or TSI, along with Earth’s global average albedo, determines Earth’s global average equilibrium temperature. During the 20th century its relative influence on the temperature changes has descended considerably. They are subject to many influences, including those of the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and are modified by them. Its effect may well decrease with time. The solar spectral irradiance is a measure of the brightness of the entire Sun at a wavelength of light. The top panel shows the experiments which used climatological (unchanging) SSTs; here the influence comes primarily from the solar UV variations affecting the stratosphere. Although the TSI is a key ingredient in Earth’s global energy budget, the spectrally resolved solar irradiance (SSI) provides much deeper insight into the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere. Furthermore, there are claims that the sunspot cycle is associated with changes in storm tracks and rainfall. Lilensten, J., T. Dudok de Wit, and K. Matthes (Eds.) Please address all inquiries about this research to Based on Gray et al. Observations, A Geologist’s Guide to Exploring and Understanding Iceland, Modeling the Creation of Cratons, Earth’s Secret Keepers, A Little-Known Mass Extinction and the “Dawn of the Modern World”, Network Connects Indigenous Knowledges in the Arctic and U.S. Southwest, “Towards a more complete assessment of the impact of solar variability on the Earth’s climate” (, An international team of scientists that met at the International Space Science Institute (. Newly Identified Instabilities Enhance Atmospheric Turbulence, The Herky-Jerky Weirdness of Earth’s Magnetic Field, Spatial and temporal patterns of global burned area in response to anthropogenic and environmental factors: Reconstructing global fire history for the 20th and early 21st centuries, Global patterns of land‐atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide, latent heat, and sensible heat derived from eddy covariance, satellite, and meteorological observations, Kelvin‐Helmholtz Billow Interactions and Instabilities in the Mesosphere Over the Andes Lidar Observatory: 1. Because SSI observations really took off only in the late 1990s, we still lack the necessary hindsight to properly assess the impact of solar variability on climate: Longer records are needed. Solar irradiance is often integrated over a given time period in order to report the radiant energy emitted into the surrounding environment during that time period. However, recent experiments at the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) suggest that these cosmic rays have a limited impact on the microphysics of clouds. Space weather and terrestrial weather (the weather we feel at the surface) are influenced by the small changes the Sun undergoes during its solar cycle. The total amount of solar energy per unit time and unit area, also called the solar irradiance, is 1361 W m –2 at the top of the atmosphere (Stephens et al., 2012, Nature Geoscience 5, p. 691). Data sets compiled from historical records provide the necessary information for model forcing, so ensuring that these data sets provide accurate, relevant information is key to producing realistic climate model scenarios. The assumption was that solar radiation would mainly act on Earth’s environment by directly heating the oceans, continents, and lower atmosphere. Careful statistical analysis is required to extract the effect of solar variability on climate from a noisy background.The effect of solar variability on climate is mostly hidden in the natural variability of the climate system; thus, careful statistical analysis is required to extract it from a noisy background. According to the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the resulting imbalance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing thermal radiation will likely cause the Earth to heat up over the next century, possibly melting polar ice caps, causing sea levels to rise, creating violent global weather patterns, and increasing vegetation density (IPCC, 2001). 12 January 2021, News By J. Geophys. The Sun can influence the Earth’s climate, but it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over the past few decades. Variations in solar irradiance may affect the Earth's climate through a direct influence on the global mean temperature or in more subtle ways. The idea that sunspots affect Earth's climate is still largely debated, but it is believed that the increase of sunspots on the surface of the sun can reduce the amount of energy and light distributed to Earth. Hence, both the UV and TSI forcings produce similar effects, with the latter helping to sharpen the response. Making accurate SSI observations is a real challenge: SSI measurements must be carried out from space to capture radiation that would otherwise be partly absorbed by Earth’s atmosphere. All these models assume that the present relationship between SSI and solar proxies holds for past variations. Climate - Climate - Solar radiation and temperature: Air temperatures have their origin in the absorption of radiant energy from the Sun. A growing research field is "global dimming" and "global brightening" of solar radiation. Here we report on the outcome of three of these initiatives: These initiatives have culminated in the production of two public data sets to assist with the scientific analysis of solar forcing: a composite data set of all irradiance observations and a comprehensive data set containing different solar forcings (radiative and by particles) since 1850. Clearly, improving our understanding of the physical mechanisms on the Sun that drive irradiance variations, particularly those that may lead to long-term climate variations, should be a priority. Andersson, M. E., et al. To overcome challenges with solar irradiance models, scientists need to piece together a record longer than the past few decades.To overcome challenges with solar irradiance models, scientists need to piece together a record longer than the past few decades. We know subtle changes in the Earth’s orbit around the Sun are responsible for the comings and goings of the ice ages. This new TSI composite should replace three existing ones whose differing trends have fueled fierce debates. "If there is indeed a solar effect on climate, it is manifested by changes in general circulation rather than in a direct temperature signal." Space-based measurements, begun in 1978, indicate Earth receives an average of 1,361 W/m2 of incoming sunlight, and the amount varies by about one-tenth of a percent over the course of the 11-year solar cycle. How do the streams of ionized particles that make up the solar wind affect certain weather patterns on Earth? However, there are still many unknowns regarding the mechanisms connecting the Earth's climate to the variation in solar irradiance. This is a small change compared to the 100s of watts we experience during seasonal and latitude differences, but it may have an impact on our climate. The solar irradiance is the output of light energy from the entire disk of the Sun, measured at the Earth. What is now the way forward? Note: 20 November 2020, Research Spotlight Winter Drought Relief Unlikely in Western U.S. Results show the percentage of the 1600 years of experiments during which solar maximum conditions produced increased (green) or decreased (brown) precipitation at different latitudes on the annual average. This handbook was the main outcome of TOSCA, a pan-European COST Action (Cooperation in Science and Technology) network of scientists devoted to that question. All weather on Earth, from the surface of the planet out into space, begins with the Sun. The Sun is a giver of life; it helps keep the planet warm enough for us to survive. Here, too, we welcome community feedback for improving future versions. How could this happen with so little change in total energy? How accurately these models reproduce SSI before direct observations started remains a major open question. Main features of the bottom-up mechanism. There is also a more substantial change in the ultraviolet (UV) portion of the solar spectrum, with direct impacts primarily in the stratosphere (above ~10km). In short: The Sun still has a lot to tell us. Our ultimate aim is to quantify more precisely the role of the Sun in the natural forcing of climate variability and climate change. Several empirical and semiempirical models have been developed for that purpose, and most match the observations well. This has climate skeptics speculating that solar 'hibernation' may be our get-out-of-jail-free card, cancelling out any global warming from our CO2 emissions. 8 December 2020, Research Spotlight These efforts shared several common objectives, including better estimates of solar forcing and identifying and quantifying the uncertainties in these estimates. Another source of variability comes from energetic particles, some of which originate from the Sun. Several teams are actively working on this issue. The word "favoring" is used advisedly; in the experiments it is a "weighting of the dice", an increase in the likelihood of these effects while accounting for less than one standard deviation of the variability (a result found in observations as well). All these quantities, which represent different paths by which the Sun could affect climate, are found to evolve in a very similar manner. The impact of the solar cycle on precipitation in the model experiments arises from two different mechanisms, the first involving UV changes, the second total solar irradiance. A summary of the potential routes whereby solar variability might influence the climate of the lower atmosphere is presented in Table 1. The effect of these changes on our temperature record has been noted by some researchers, and, like the change in solar irradiance, it too appears to be small. (Click for large JPEG or PDF.). Total solar irradiance changes, though of small magnitude, do appear to affect sea surface temperatures (SSTs), most obviously at latitudes where cloud cover is small and irradiance is abundant, such as the Northern Hemisphere subtropics during summer. All these effects, however, are found to have a minor impact on climate in comparison to recent man-made global warming. The Sun can influence the Earth’s climate, but it isn’t responsible for the warming trend we’ve seen over the past few decades. Climate Change Higher latitudes during Southern Hemisphere winter receive no such augmentation, and the increased latitudinal temperature gradient results in stronger stratospheric west winds. (2014), Missing driver in the Sun–Earth connection from energetic electron precipitation impacts mesospheric ozone, Nat. The total variation in solar irradiance is about 1.3 watts per square meter during one sunspot cycle. An international team of scientists, challenged by the fragmentation of historical solar forcing data, met at ISSI to produce another comprehensive data set for direct use by climate modelers, who require long-term reconstructions. The uneven distribution of solar radiation on Earth’s surface drives atmospheric dynamics. Variations in the ultraviolet component. PDF documents require the free Adobe Reader or compatible viewing software to be viewed. This study shows that the Earth’s surface air temperature does not respond to changes in the solar cycle. (2017), Solar forcing for CMIP6 (v3.2), Geosci. Earth scientists will move a step closer to a full understanding of the Sun's energy output with the launch of the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Exploring the stratospheric/tropospheric response to solar forcing. Recent variations in SSTs due to other sources (such as greenhouse gases) appear to have minimized the mid-latitude response. This effect is seen in some paleoclimate records and has been attributed to solar influence. Energetic protons produced during solar flares and energetic electrons that originate from the Earth’s magnetosphere have received much less attention, yet they may play a role by contributing to catalytic ozone loss in the polar atmosphere [Andersson et al., 2014]. (Click for large GIF or PDF.). The solar irradiance is measured in watt per square metre in SI units. Their objective is to improve understanding of climate response to solar variability. The bottom panel is for the experiments with historically-varying SSTs, in which TSI changes have influenced the surface. This decrease in energy can result in colder weather and even "mini ice ages" on parts of Earth that are farther from the equator. Such ozone depletion primarily affects the upper layers of the atmosphere (60–80 kilometers) but eventually it affects the lower layers and climate as well. Intuitively one may assume the that total solar irradiance would decrease as the number of (optically dark) sunspots increased. It is distributed unevenly over Earth… Dr. David Rind. T. Dudok de Wit, B. Funke, M. Haberreiter, and K. Matthes The data set comes with recommendations on solar-induced ozone variations that are consistent with these solar forcing data, and it has been recommended for the current Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) initiative [Matthes et al., 2017]. The most energetic particles, known as galactic cosmic rays, have an extragalactic origin; their role in cloud formation has attracted strong media attention. Making accurate SSI observations is a real challenge: SSI measurements must be carried out from space.Unfortunately, the record of SSI observations is fragmented in time and in wavelength, even more so than TSI observations. Several international initiatives are working to stitch together data describing solar forcing of Earth’s climate. 4 September 2018. T (°C) is the global mean surface air temperature departure from the 1951-1980 mean as compiled by the Goddard Space Flight Centre. To understand the processes involved, we recently completed an extensive series of climate model experiments, involving 1600 simulated years with varying UV and total solar irradiance (TSI). This is generally considered to be a minor effect, as the measured amplitudes of the variations are too small to have significant effect, absent some amplification process. Although solar radiation represents more than 99.9% of the energy entering Earth’s system, radiation is not the only means by which solar variability affects climate. In addition, the solar-plus-ozone change leads to increased tropical stratospheric warming in the mid-to-upper stratosphere during solar maximum conditions. This integrated solar irradiance is called solar irradiation, solar exposure, solar insolat Rind, D., J. L. Lean, J. Lerner, P. Lonergan, and A. Leboissetier, 2008: Res., 113, D24103, Model Dev., 10, 2,247–2,302, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2247-2017. With our increased ability to monitor the sun, we are now aware that there is a small change in the total solar irradiance accompanying shifts from solar maximum conditions (with many sunspots) to solar minimum (with, basically, none). The most important impact the Sun has on Earth is from the brightness or irradiance of the Sun itself. 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